On 2 April 2025, standing in the White House Rose Garden, Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on 185 countries and territories. Billed as “reciprocal tariffs”, the measures set a universal 10% duty on all imports from 5 April for most goods (some as early as 4 April), then specific rates from 9 April for around sixty countries labelled the worst trade offenders (34% for China, 20% for the European Union, 24% for Japan, and so on).

The impact on financial markets was immediate and brutal. On Monday 7 April, stock markets around the world collapsed: -4.78% for the CAC 40, the Paris stock exchange’s benchmark index, as much as -13% for the Hang Seng in Hong Kong, -8% for the Nikkei in Japan. Over the week, several major indices lost more than 10% of their value. Even the US bond market, the safe haven par excellence, took a beating, as they say.

Then, plot twist on 9 April: at 1:18pm (New York time), Trump announced a 90-day pause on his tariffs for every country except China, whose rate instead climbed to 125% (reaching 145% in total with existing duties, as the White House clarified the next day).

Markets rebounded spectacularly. On 10 April, European exchanges closed sharply higher (Paris +3.83%, London +3.04%, Frankfurt +4.53%). Tokyo soared 9.12%, Seoul 6.6%.

So far, strange as it all was, nothing truly abnormal. But beyond the extreme volatility, something quieter happened a few minutes before Trump’s announcement...